CAPM: Derivation and the Security Market Line
Starting from MPT's Separation Theorem (all investors hold the same Tangency Portfolio), CAPM derives an equilibrium pricing model. If all investors hold the market portfolio, then in equilibrium the market portfolio IS the Tangency Portfolio. The Security Market Line (SML) plots expected return against beta: E(Rᵢ) = Rƒ + βᵢ × (E(Rₘ) - Rƒ). Every asset and portfolio in equilibrium should lie on the SML — assets above the line offer positive alpha (expected return exceeds CAPM prediction), assets below offer negative alpha. The slope of the SML is the equity risk premium (ERP).
CAPM delivers three key testable predictions: (1) the market portfolio lies on the Efficient Frontier; (2) expected return is a linear function of beta; (3) beta is the only risk factor that matters (idiosyncratic risk is diversified away and therefore uncompensated). Testing these predictions against historical data has been the central project of empirical finance research for 60 years — and the results are mixed: beta does explain return differences broadly, but the relationship is flatter than CAPM predicts (low-beta stocks outperform their CAPM predictions, high-beta stocks underperform), and factors beyond beta (size, value, momentum) explain substantial return variation.