Calculating Standard Deviation of Investment Returns
Standard deviation measures how much individual returns deviate from the average return over a period. For a stock with monthly returns, calculate the average monthly return, then measure each month's deviation from that average, square each deviation, average the squared deviations (variance), and take the square root to get standard deviation. Annualized standard deviation = monthly standard deviation × √12 (or daily × √252 for trading days). A stock with 20% annualized standard deviation has returns that fall within ±20% of the mean roughly 68% of the time (one standard deviation range), within ±40% roughly 95% of the time.
Historical annualized standard deviations as context: US T-bills ~1%, US aggregate bonds ~4-5%, US large-cap equities ~15-17%, small-cap equities ~20-23%, emerging market equities ~25-28%, individual large-cap stocks ~25-45%. These figures reflect long-term averages; realized volatility changes dramatically across market regimes. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the implied 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 based on option prices — it spikes during crises (reaching 80+ in March 2020) and compresses during calm bull markets (dropping below 12-13 in 2017-2019).
Annualized Std Dev calculation:
Daily returns: [+1.2%, -0.8%, +0.3%, ...]
Mean daily return = average of all daily returns
Variance = average of (each return - mean)²
Daily Std Dev = √Variance
Annualized Std Dev = Daily Std Dev × √252